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Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning across Europe
  • Gemma Cremen,
  • Carmine Galasso,
  • Elisa Zuccolo
Gemma Cremen
University College London, University College London, University College London

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Carmine Galasso
University College London, University College London, University College London
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Elisa Zuccolo
European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering, European Centre for Training and Research in Earthquake Engineering
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Abstract

We assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW) across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public), to an earthquake’s nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites. During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential usefulness of these times for EEW purposes, by defining their spatial relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for measuring the impacts of earthquakes. The mapped feasibility results demonstrate that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for some parts of Europe.
08 Feb 2022Published in Nature Communications volume 13 issue 1. 10.1038/s41467-021-27807-2