Investigating the potential effectiveness of earthquake early warning
across Europe
Abstract
We assess the potential implementation of earthquake early warning (EEW)
across Europe, where there is a clear need for measures that mitigate
seismic risk. EEW systems consist of seismic networks and mathematical
models/algorithms capable of real-time data telemetry that alert
stakeholders (e.g., civil-protection authorities, the public), to an
earthquake’s nucleation seconds before shaking occurs at target sites.
During this time, actions can be taken that might decrease detrimental
impacts. We investigate distributions of EEW lead times available across
various parts of the Euro-Mediterranean region, based on seismicity
models and seismic network density. We then determine the potential
usefulness of these times for EEW purposes, by defining their spatial
relationship with population exposure, seismic hazard, and an alert
accuracy proxy, using well-established earthquake-engineering tools for
measuring the impacts of earthquakes. The mapped feasibility results
demonstrate that, under certain conditions, EEW could be effective for
some parts of Europe.