A method to generate initial fault stresses for physics-based ground
motion prediction consistent with regional seismicity
Abstract
Near-field ground motion is the major blind spot of seismic hazard
studies, mainly because of the challenges in accounting for source
effects. Initial stress heterogeneity is an important component of
physics-based approaches to ground motion prediction that represent
source effects through dynamic earthquake rupture modeling. We
hypothesize that stress heterogeneity on a fault primarily originates
from past background seismicity. We develop a new method to generate
stochastic stress distributions as a superposition of residual stresses
left by previous ruptures that are consistent with regional
distributions of earthquake size and hypocentral depth. We validate our
method on Mw 7 earthquake models suitable for California, by obtaining a
satisfactory agreement with empirical earthquake scaling laws and ground
motion prediction equations. To avoid the excessive seismic radiation
produced by dynamic models with abrupt arrest at preset rupture borders,
we achieve spontaneous rupture arrest by incorporating a scale-dependent
fracture energy adjusted with fracture mechanics theory. Our analyses of
rupture and ground motion reveal particular signatures of the initial
stress heterogeneity: rupture can locally propagate at supershear speed
near the highly-stressed areas; the position of high-stress and
low-stress areas due to initial stress heterogeneity determines how the
peak ground motion amplitudes and polarization spatially vary along the
fault, as low-stress areas slows down the rupture, decrease stress drop,
and change the radiation distribution before the rupture arrest. We also
find that the medium stratification amplifies the moment rate spectrum
at frequencies above 2 Hz, which requires understanding the interaction
between site effects and rupture dynamics; therefore, we highlight the
need to consider a realistic fault medium on future studies of rupture
dynamics. Our approach advances our understanding of the relations
between dynamic features of earthquake ruptures and the statistics of
regional seismicity, and our capability to model source effects for
near-field ground motion prediction studies.