A framework for variational inference and data assimilation of soil
biogeochemical models using state space approximations and normalizing
flows
Hua Wally Xie
UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine
Corresponding Author:[email protected]
Author ProfileDebora Sujono
UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine
Author ProfileTom Ryder
Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University, Newcastle University
Author ProfileErik B. Sudderth
UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine
Author ProfileSteven Allison
UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine, University of California Irvine, University of California Irvine, University of California Irvine, University of California Irvine, UC Irvine, UC Irvine
Author ProfileAbstract
Soil biogeochemical models (SBMs) simulate element transfer processes
between organic soil pools. These models can be used to specify
falsifiable quantitative assertions about soil system dynamics and their
responses to global surface temperature warming. To determine whether
SBMs are useful for representing and forecasting data-generating
processes in soils, it is important to conduct data assimilation and
fitting of SBMs conditioned on soil pool and flux measurements to
validate model predictive accuracy. SBM data assimilation has previously
been carried out in approaches ranging from visual qualitative tuning of
model output against data to more statistically rigorous Bayesian
inferences that estimate posterior parameter distributions with Markov
chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. MCMC inference is better able to
account for data and parameter uncertainty, but the computational
inefficiency of MCMC methods limits their ability to scale assimilations
to larger data sets. With formulation of efficient and statistically
rigorous SBM inference frameworks remaining an open problem, we
demonstrate the novel application of a variational inference framework
that uses a method called normalizing flows to approximate SBMs that
have been discretized into state space models. We fit the approximated
SBMs to synthetic data sourced from known data-generating processes to
identify discrepancies between the inference results and true parameter
values and ensure functionality of our method. Our approach trades
estimation accuracy for algorithmic efficiency gains that make SBM data
assimilation more tractable and achievable under computational time and
resource limitations.