3.3 Phasing between pluvial conditions in Southern Arabia and sea-level change during MIS 5e
Based on the stalagmite Y99 stable isotope records, climatic and environmental conditions in Southern Arabia were generally favourable for human dispersal along the southern dispersal route during MIS 5e. A key-question is therefore whether BaMwidth was narrow enough for a successful crossing into Arabia during MIS 5e and SAHP 4. The absolute and precise age-models for the MIS 5e (SAHP 4) growth interval of stalagmite Y99 allows the comparison of the phasing between monsoonal rainfall, the RSL and BaMwidth (Fig. 3). The onset of SAHP 4 at 127.725 +/- 0.448/0.3741 ka BP occurred when global sea-level was already 4.7 ± 3.9 m higher than today and the width of the Bab-al-Mandab Strait was >26 km, similar or even wider than today. Furthermore, at the end of SAHP 4 (121.170 ± 0.500 ka BP), global sea level was only 14.7 ± 3.1 m lower than today, yet the Bab-al-Mandab was ~20 km wide and therefore remained a major obstacle to the southern dispersal route.
The observed time lag between sea-level rise and the onset of pluvial conditions in Arabia is consistent with a growing body of evidence for a decoupling of monsoon intensification and rising low-latitude insolation during T-II. Low-latitude insolation is a key control on the interhemispheric pressure gradient (iHPG), which regulates the intensity and position of the monsoon domain (e.g., Beck et al., 2018). Yet, despite rising insolation throughout T-II, our data, as well as previously published records from Sanbao (Cheng et al., 2009) and Soreq (Bar-Matthews et al., 2003; Grant et al., 2012, 2016; Häuselmann et al., 2015) caves, indicate that monsoon intensification did not occur until ~129-128 ka BP. This lag can be related to the effects of the cold northern hemisphere conditions during HS11 (135-130 ka BP). HS11 punctuated the warming of T-II and coincides with a major deglacial meltwater discharge (up to 0.3 Sv) phase into the North Atlantic (Marino et al., 2015). Meltwater discharge contributed to up to 70% of sea-level rise during T-II (Marino et al., 2015) and slowed, or maybe even led to a collapse of AMOC (Böhm et al., 2015) leading to colder northern hemisphere temperatures. This reduced the iHPG, suppressed the effects of rising insolation, and inhibited the migration of both the ASM/ISM and the EAM (Cheng et al., 2009; Häuselmann et al., 2015). Only once freshwater discharge and northern hemisphere temperatures stabilised ~128 ka BP (Marino et al., 2015) could insolation have a full effect on the iHPG and permitted northward migration of the monsoon rainbelt. Therefore, not only did high sea-levels act as a potential barrier to dispersal during MIS 5e, a supressed ASM/ISM throughout T-II meant that more arid conditions prevailed in Arabia and northeastern Africa when sea-levels were lower than today.
4 Models for H. sapiens dispersals across the southern-route
With a present-day minimum width of ~26 km, the Bab-al-Mandab would represent a major obstacle for H. sapiensdispersals. A common suggestion is that a reduced width of the Strait facilitated a maritime crossing during T-II (Armitage et al., 2011; Bae et al., 2017). However, the Y99 record indicates that the intensification of the monsoon lagged behind sea-level rise during T-II and instead occurred once BaMwidth had reached its Late Pleistocene maximum. This instead suggests that the most optimal period of H. sapiens dispersal, from a palaeoclimatic perspective, was between 128 and 121 ka BP, when increased rainfall transformed Southern Arabia into a grassland biome. The lag between sea-level rise and the onset of pluvial conditions has potentially important implications for understanding both the route of H. sapiens dispersals and also the cognitive, behavioural and technological capacities they possessed. Here, we provide three, not necessarily mutually exclusive, potential models for human dispersals throughout T-II and SAHP 4 (Fig. 4):
  1. Dispersal occurred via a northern land-route during favourable conditions across Saharo-Arabia occurred between 128-121 ka BP and followed palaeohydrological corridors into Arabia and the Levant (Breeze et al., 2016; Nicholson et al., 2021).
  2. A maritime dispersal via the southern-route occurred when sea-levels were high, but climates were favourable between 128-121 ka BP.
  3. A maritime dispersal via the southern-route occurred prior to the onset of favourable climatic and environmental conditions, when sea-levels were low >128 ka BP (Armitage et al., 2011; Rohling et al., 2013).
Both model 2 and 3 require evidence of sea-faring, which is currently unknown prior to 60-50 ka BP (Norman et al., 2018), and model 3 assumes that H. sapiens were rather tolerant of arid and semi-arid conditions or exploited productive coastal environments (Erlandson and Braje, 2015). Previous findings, however, have linked occupations of the now Saharo-Arabian deserts interiors to wetter phases of MIS 5, providing support for model 1. This model is supported by the archaeological assemblages from northeast Africa, the Nafud Desert and the Levant; techno-cultural similarities suggest cultural exchange between these regions (Groucutt et al., 2015b, 2019).
The validity of the southern dispersal route hypothesis is therefore dependent on evidence of sea-faring prior to and during MIS 5e, which is currently absent between Africa and SE Asia, and/or flexible environmental tolerances of H. sapiens . Conversely, the northern-route into Arabia was a viable route throughout SAHP 4. Whether crossing the Bab-al-Mandab Strait was an additional route will require further archaeological investigation of coastal settings (e.g., Bailey et al., 2015) to establish clear demographic links between both sides of the Strait and providing examples of the sea-faring capabilities prior to 60 ka. Additionally, future dispersal pathway modelling studies must synthesise climatic, environmental and other topographic factors (e.g., Groucutt, 2020), which might have various and counteracting effects, to understand the variations of H. sapiens biogeographies.
5 Conclusions
Overall, our results indicate that the onset of increased rainfall occurred at 127.7 ka BP, after maximum deglaciation and sea-level rise. Whereas aridity prevailed throughout T-II when sea-levels were lower, the Bab-al-Mandab was at its greatest width at the onset of SAHP 4. We observe a distinct phase-lag between sea-level rise and monsoon intensification from records in close proximity to one-another. Our findings have pertinent impacts for understanding (1) the timing of monsoon intensification relative to sea-level rise throughout T-II in the Horn of Africa and Southern Arabia. (2) The timings and geographies of H. sapiens dispersals during MIS 5e, and (3) the potential behavioural and technological capabilities of H. sapiens at the onset of the Late Pleistocene.
Acknowledgments, Samples, and Data
This work was supported by the AHRC South, West and Wales Doctoral Training Partnership (Grant AH/L503939/1) the Swiss National Science Foundation (Grant PP002-110554/1 to DF). The initial stable-isotope and230Th age data used to construct the age-model is available at Nicholson et al. (2020). Our original StalAge age-depth data has been submitted to the data repository PANGAEA, which complies with FAIR principles. On acceptance of our manuscript our data will be made available at PANGAEA.
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