Abstract
Recent research has described a ‘moist margin’ in the tropics, defined
through a total column water vapor (TCWV) value of 48 kg m-2, that
encloses most of the rainfall over the tropical oceans. Diagnosing the
moist margin in the ERA5 reanalysis reveals that it varies particularly
on synoptic time scales, which this study aims to quantify. We define
‘wet and dry perturbation’ objects based on the margin’s movement
relative to its seasonal climatology. These perturbations are associated
with a variety of features, such as tropical cyclones and lows, tropical
waves, and extrusions of moisture towards the extratropics. Wet (dry)
perturbations produce substantially more (less) rainfall compared to the
seasonal average, confirming the clear link between moisture and
precipitation. On synoptic scales we suggest that mid-tropospheric
humidity plays a key role in creating these perturbations, while sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) are relatively unimportant.