Abstract
Wildland fire is expected to increase in response to global warming, yet
little is known about future changes to fire regimes in Europe. Here, we
developed a pyrogeography based on statistical fire models to better
understand how global warming reshapes fire regimes across the
continent. We identified five large-scale pyroregions with different
levels of area burned, fire frequency, intensity, length of fire period,
size distribution, and seasonality. All other things being equal, global
warming was found to alter the distribution of these pyroregions, with a
spatial extension of the most fire prone pyroregions ranging
respectively from 50% to 130% under 2 and 4 °C global warming
scenarios. Our estimates indicate a strong amplification of fire across
parts of southern Europe and subsequent shift towards new fire regimes,
implying substantial socio-ecological impacts in the absence of
mitigation or adaptation measures.