A new observational-modeling framework for flash-flood forecasting in
complex-terrain watersheds.
Abstract
The watershed determined by Aburrá Valley system, located in
northwestern Colombia, has significant urban development and steep
hills. These features, together with the typical intense storms of the
region, make the watershed prone to the occurrence of flash floods
during the rainy seasons, affecting vulnerable communities. We propose a
hybrid observational-modeling strategy to generate 30-minute discharge
forecasts in different locations of the watershed, using an operational
distributed hydrological model, information from stream gauges, and
weather radar-derived precipitation using a quantitative precipitation
estimation (QPE) technique. The forecast methodology is triggered when
any stream gauge of interest reports levels over a predefined threshold.
As a first step, the model uses different rainfall scenarios for the
following 30 minutes. Every 5 minutes, the model forecast is executed
after updating the observed rainfall and the rainfall scenarios. The
scenarios correspond to (i) a lagrangian extrapolation of the
precipitation fields, (ii) to a cellular automata-based extrapolation
and to (iii) the last observed rain field multiplied by a time-varying
ad-hoc factor based on historical event analysis. To parametrize the
hydrological model and to validate the prediction methodology, we use
173 storm events from 2013 to 2018. The methodology is evaluated using
the Nash coefficient, the Klin-Gupta index, differences in time-to-peak
discharge, peak-discharge differences, and total storm-event volume
differences. Operationally, the forecasted streamflow corresponds to the
scenario with the best historical performance, given the total amount of
observed rainfall. The overall results suggest that the described
approach is promising. However, there are still some cases in which the
method leads to discharge underestimation. Considering the forecast
uncertainty, the results show that it is possible to design flash floods
alerts using this simple but robust methodology.