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How might Planned Hydropower Dams Alter River Temperatures Around the World?
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  • Shahryar Khalique Ahmad,
  • Faisal Hossain,
  • Gordon William Holtgrieve,
  • Tamlin M Pavelsky,
  • Stefano Galelli
Shahryar Khalique Ahmad
University of Washington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Faisal Hossain
University of Washington
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Gordon William Holtgrieve
University of Washington
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Tamlin M Pavelsky
University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
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Stefano Galelli
Singapore University of Technology and Design
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Abstract

Selective water release from the deeper pools of reservoirs for energy generation alters the temperature of downstream rivers. Thermal destabilization of downstream rivers can be detrimental to riverine ecosystem by potentially disturbing the growth stages of various aquatic species. To predict this impact of planned hydropower dams worldwide, we developed, tested and implemented a framework called ‘FUture Temperatures Using River hISTory’ (FUTURIST). The framework used historical records of in-situ river temperatures from 107 dams in the U.S. to train an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict temperature change between upstream and downstream rivers. The model was then independently validated over multiple existing hydropower dams in Southeast Asia. Application of the model over 216 planned dam sites afforded the prediction of their likely thermal impacts. Results predicted a consistent shift toward lower temperatures during summers and higher temperatures during winters. During Jun-Aug, 80% of the selected planned sites are likely to cool downstream rivers out of which 15% are expected to reduce temperatures by more than 6˚C. Reservoirs that experience strong thermal stratification tend to cool severely during warm seasons. Over the months of Dec-Feb, a relatively consistent pattern of moderate warming was observed with a likely temperature change varying between 1.0 to 4.5˚C. Such impacts, homogenized over time, raise concerns for the ecological biodiversity and native species. The presented outlook to future thermal pollution will help design sustainable hydropower expansion plans so that the upcoming dams do not face and cause the same problems identified with the existing ones.