Assessing watershed-scale environmental flow alterations induced by dams
and climate change using a distributed hydrological model
Abstract
Hydrological alterations, which can be represented by the extent of the
changes in the flow patterns resulting from anthropogenic factors, can
reduce aquatic biodiversity by disrupting the life cycles of organisms.
However, past studies have faced difficulties in quantifying the impacts
of dams and climate change, which are major drivers of hydrological
alterations. Here, we aimed to evaluate and compare the hydrological
alterations caused by dams and climate change throughout the Omaru River
catchment, Japan, using a distributed hydrological model. First, to
assess the impacts of dam and climate change independently, we performed
runoff analyses using either dam discharge or future climatic data (two
future periods × three representative concentration pathways; RCPs).
Subsequently, we derived indicators of hydrologic alterations (IHA) to
quantify changes in flow alterations by comparing them to IHA under
natural conditions (i.e., without dam or climate change data). The
runoff analyses showed high reproducibility throughout the study period
(Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency = 0.921–0.964). We found that dams altered
IHAs more than climate change. However, on a catchment-scale standpoint,
climate change induced wider ranges of flow alterations, such as low
flow metrics along the tributaries and uppermost main stem, suggesting a
watershed-level shrinkage in important corridors of aquatic organisms by
reducing upstream length and water level. We also observed that the
altered flow by water withdrawals were ameliorated by the confluence of
tributaries and downstream hydropower outflows. Our approach, which used
a distributed hydrological model, developed a better understanding of
flow alterations by dams and climate change.