Abstract
This study examines the characteristics of several model parameter
perturbation methodologies for ensemble simulations of cloud
microphysical processes in convection. A simplified 1D model is used to
focus the results on cloud microphysics without the complication of
feedbacks to the dynamics and environment. Several parameter
perturbation methods are tested, including non-stochastic and stochastic
with various distributions and parameter covariance. We find that an
ensemble comprised of different time-invariant parameters
(non-stochastic) exhibits little bias, but insufficient spread. In
addition, its behavior does not respect the time evolution of convection
through its various phases. Stochastic parameter (SP) methods in which
no inter-parameter covariance is applied produce greater spread, but
significant bias. The bias is particularly large for lognormal parameter
perturbation distributions. The ensemble spread is retained and the bias
reduced when time-varying parameter covariance is applied. In this case,
the SP scheme is able to adapt to the time and state-dependent
covariance structures and produce ensemble characteristics that are
consistent with the specific microphysical processes operating at any
given time. The results suggest that SP schemes would benefit from
inclusion of parameter covariances, and specifically those that vary
with the state of the system. It also suggests that a Normal or
LogNormal SP scheme with no covariance may produce a significantly
biased ensemble. Finally, the results indicate that high temporal and
spatial resolution observations may be needed to characterize the
variability in parameter values and covariance.