Abstract
This study examines the implications of Tropical Montane Forests (TMFs)
loss on orographic precipitation in the Eastern slopes of the Andes
(EADS). The focus is on moist processes for synoptic regimes associated
with significant EADS precipitation: 1) monsoon rainfall for weak and
strong South America Low-Level Jet (LLJ) conditions, and 2) heavy
rainfall associated with cold air intrusions (CAI) in the dry season.
High-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting
(WRF) model were conducted for realistic and modified land-cover
resulting from the conversion of TMFs to savannah. The deforestation
scenarios result in 50-100% decrease (up to ~ 400 J
kg-1) in Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) spatially
organized by land-cover change along the EADS. Analysis of the
differences in simulated frequency distributions of rainfall intensity
show robust daytime increases in light rainfall (less than 2 mm hr-1)
and decreases in moderate rainfall rates (2-10 mm hr-1) in the
altitudinal band 500-2,000 m where orographic enhancement is dominant.
Whereas there are negligible changes in the spatial patterns of
precipitation and hydrologic response for monsoon conditions, rainfall
accumulations decrease for all cases, and the precipitation maxima shift
downslope into the Amazon lowlands. Changes in rainfall amount and
intensity result in runoff decreases of 5-10% at the event-scale for
the CAI case. Sensitivity simulations for lower initial soil moisture
conditions indicate a strong positive feedback of forest loss to
hydrologic drought along the EADS foothills in the austral spring when
CAIs play a key role in the tropical EADS dry season hydrometeorology.