Zhixiao Zhang

and 9 more

To address the effect of stratiform latent heating on meso- to large scale circulations, an enhanced implementation of the Multiscale Coherent Structure Parameterization (MCSP) is developed for the Met Office Unified Model. MCSP represents the top-heavy stratiform latent heating from under-resolved organized convection in general circulation models. We couple the MCSP with a mass-flux convection scheme (CoMorph-A) to improve storm lifecycle continuity. The improved MCSP trigger is specifically designed for mixed-phase deep convective cloud, combined with a background vertical wind shear, both known to be crucial for stratiform development. We also test a cloud top temperature dependent convective-stratiform heating partitioning, in contrast to the earlier fixed partitioning. Assessments from ensemble weather forecasts and decadal simulations demonstrate that MCSP directly reduces cloud deepening and precipitation areas by moderating mesoscale circulations. Indirectly, it amends tropical precipitation biases, notably correcting dry and wet biases over India and the Indian Ocean, respectively. Remarkably, the scheme outperforms a climate model ensemble by improving seasonal precipitation cycle predictions in these regions. This enhancement is partly due to the scheme’s refinement of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) spectra, achieving better alignment with reanalysis data by intensifying MJO events and maintaining their eastward propagation after passing the Maritime Continent. However, the scheme also increases precipitation overestimation over the Western Pacific. Shifting from fixed to temperature-dependent convective-stratiform partitioning reduces the Pacific precipitation overestimation but also lessens the improvements of seasonal cycle in India. Spatially correlated biases highlight the necessity for advancements beyond deterministic approaches to align MCSP with environmental conditions.

Lorenzo Tomassini

and 13 more

In atmospheric models with kilometer-scale grids the resolution approaches the scale of convection. As a consequence the most energetic eddies in the atmosphere are partially resolved and partially unresolved. The modeling challenge to represent convection partially explicitly and partially as a subgrid process is called the convective gray zone problem. The gray zone issue has previously been discussed in the context of regional models, but the evolution in regional models is constrained by the lateral boundary conditions. Here we explore the convective gray zone starting from a defined global configuration of the Met Office Unified Model using initialized forecasts and comparing different model formulations to observations. The focus is on convection and turbulence, but some aspects of the model dynamics are also considered. The global model is run at nominal 5km resolution and thus contributions from both resolved and subgrid turbulent and convective fluxes are non-negligible. The main conclusion is that in the present assessment, the configurations which include scale-aware turbulence and a carefully reduced and simplified mass-flux convection scheme outperform both the configuration with fully parameterized convection as well as a configuration in which the subgrid convection parameterization is switched off completely. The results are more conclusive with regard to convective organization and tropical variability than extratropical predictability. The present study thus endorses the strategy to further develop scale-aware physics schemes and to pursue an operational implementation of the global 5km-resolution model to be used alongside other ensemble forecasts to allow researchers and forecasters to further assess these simulations.