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Seasonal Changes in Poleward Atmospheric Heat Transport Under Increased CO2
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  • Lily Caroline Hahn,
  • Kyle Armour,
  • David S. Battisti,
  • Aaron Donohoe,
  • Robert Fajber
Lily Caroline Hahn
University of Washington

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Kyle Armour
University of Washington
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David S. Battisti
University of Washington
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Aaron Donohoe
University of Washington
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Robert Fajber
University of Washington
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Abstract

Arctic warming under increased CO2 peaks in winter, but is influenced by summer forcing via seasonal ocean heat storage. Yet changes in atmospheric heat transport into the Arctic have mainly been investigated in the annual mean or winter, with limited focus on other seasons. We investigate the full seasonal cycle of poleward heat transport modelled with increased CO2 or with individually applied Arctic sea-ice loss and global sea-surface warming. We find that a winter reduction in dry heat transport is driven by Arctic sea-ice loss and warming, while a summer increase in moist heat transport is driven by sub-Arctic warming and moistening. Intermodel spread in Arctic warming controls spread in seasonal poleward heat transport. These seasonal changes and their intermodel spread are well-captured by down-gradient diffusive heat transport. While changes in moist and dry heat transport compensate in the annual-mean, their opposite seasonality may support non-compensating effects on Arctic warming.
29 Jun 2023Submitted to ESS Open Archive
08 Jul 2023Published in ESS Open Archive