Putting the significance of spectral peaks on the level: implications
for the 1470-yr peak in Greenland δ18O
Abstract
Spectral analyses of the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 (GISP2) δ18O
record has been interpreted to show a 1/(1470 yr) spectral peak that is
highly statistically significant (p<0.01) relative to a null
model, H0, consisting of an auto-regressive order one process. In this
study H0 is generalized using an auto-regressive moving-average process
that is removed from the GISP2 δ18O time series, yielding a spectral
estimate that is approximately level. A rule of thumb is proposed for
evaluating the adequacy of H0 involving comparing the expected and
observed variance of the logarithm of a leveled spectral estimate. After
suitably leveling GISP2 δ18O and accounting for multiple hypothesis
testing, multitaper spectral estimation indicates that the 1/(1470 yr)
peak is insignificant (p>0.05). The proposed techniques for
fitting H0 should be generally applicable to evaluating peaks in other
geophysical spectral estimates.