Application of the INGV MUF nowcasting and forecasting methods for
PECASUS to relevant cases for aviation
Abstract
As it is known, Space Weather (SWx) phenomena can have dramatic impact
on satellite navigation and HF radio communication systems, being also
responsible for increases on radiation levels at flight altitudes. For
this reason, in recent years the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) has been showing great interest in operational SWx
services for aviation purposes in these three domains. Four global SWx
centers have been then appointed since November 2019 by ICAO to provide
real-time SWx advisories for aviation users. In particular, HF COM
conditions are assessed by monitoring the F2-layer critical frequency
foF2 or the MUF(3000) ionospheric characteristic (MUF =
Maximum Usable Frequency), the latter representing the highest HF radio
frequency that can be used for communications over a standard distance
of 3000 km via F2-layer ionospheric reflection. As one of the designed
SWx centers, several key operational 24/7 products for HF COM conditions
assessment have been developed within PECASUS (Partnership for
Excellence in Civil Aviation Space weather User Services). Nowcasting
and forecasting (1-24hr) maps over Europe of MUF(3000) and its ratio
with respect to a background level are then developed by INGV, as a
PECASUS partner. The MUF(3000) nowcasting uses all the available
real-time ionosonde measurements in different locations in order to
upgrade IRI-CCIR-based background maps, and Ordinary Kriging method for
spatial interpolation. The MUF(3000) modeling performance was assessed
comparing predicted values to measured ones over two test stations
during strong geomagnetic storm periods, obtaining an overall RMSE
< 2 MHz at both stations. The MUF(3000) predicted 1-24 hours
ahead depends on foF2 and M(3000) ionospheric
parameters: EUROMAP forecasting model and IRI model are used for the
former and the latter, respectively. The method has been applied to
Europe where there are ionospheric stations with long (for some solar
cycles) historical data and current real-time foF2
observations. A mapping procedure applied to the European stations
provides MUF(3000) short-term prediction over the whole area. The
application of these methods to storm events occurred after November
2019 is here presented, in order to study the ionospheric conditions
they provide when HF COM advisories are expected to be issued.