The Predictive Capability of Conditioned Simulation of Discrete Fracture
Networks using Structural and Hydraulic Data from the ONKALO Underground
Research Facility, Finland
Abstract
Discrete fracture network (DFN) models provide a natural analysis
framework for rock conditions where flow is predominately through a
series of connected discrete features. Mechanistic models to predict the
structural patterns of networks are generally intractable due to
inherent uncertainties (e.g. deformation history) and as such fracture
characterisation typically involves empirical descriptions of fracture
statistics for location, intensity, orientation, size, aperture etc.
from analyses of field data. These DFN models are used to make
probabilistic predictions of likely flow or solute transport conditions
for a range of applications in underground resource and construction
projects. However, there are many instances when the volumes in which
predictions are most valuable are close to data sources. For example, in
the disposal of hazardous materials such as radioactive waste, accurate
predictions of flow-rates and network connectivity around disposal areas
are required for long-term safety evaluation. The problem at hand is
thus: how can probabilistic predictions be conditioned on local-scale
measurements? This presentation demonstrates conditioning of a DFN model
based on the current structural and hydraulic characterisation of the
Demonstration Area at the ONKALO underground research facility. The
conditioned realisations honour (to a required level of similarity) the
locations, orientations and trace lengths of fractures mapped on the
surfaces of the nearby ONKALO tunnels and pilot drillholes. Other data
used as constraints include measurements from hydraulic injection tests
performed in pilot drillholes and inflows to the subsequently reamed
experimental deposition holes. Numerical simulations using this suite of
conditioned DFN models provides a series of prediction-outcome exercises
detailing the reliability of the DFN model to make local-scale
predictions of measured geometric and hydraulic properties of the
fracture system; and provides an understanding of the reduction in
uncertainty in model predictions for conditioned DFN models honouring
different aspects of this data.