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Francesco Ragone
Public Documents
1
The Rate of Information Transfer as a Measure of Rapid Changes in Arctic Sea Ice
David Docquier
and 4 more
December 06, 2021
Arctic sea ice has substantially changed over the past four decades, with a large decrease in sea-ice area and volume. The exact causes of these changes are not entirely known. In our study, we make use of the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Large Ensemble (SMHI-LENS). This ensemble consists of 50 members realized with the EC-Earth3 global climate model and covers the period 1970-2100. We apply the Liang-Kleeman information flow method to analyze the cause-effect relationships between Arctic sea ice and its potential drivers. We show that recent and future changes in Arctic sea ice are mainly driven by air and sea-surface temperatures and ocean heat transport. Conversely, changes in Arctic sea ice also considerably impact temperature and ocean heat transport. Finally, we find a progressive decrease in the influence of sea-ice area and volume on air temperature and ocean heat transport through the twenty-first century.