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\begin{document}

\title{Bayesian benchmarking of off-normal occurrence rates for US underground
natural gas storage facilities}



\author[1]{Richard Schultz}%
\author[2]{Douglas Hubbard}%
\author[3]{David Evans}%
\author[4]{Sam Savage}%
\affil[1]{Orion Geomechanics LLC}%
\affil[2]{Hubbard Decision Research}%
\affil[3]{British Geological Survey}%
\affil[4]{ProbabilityManagement.org}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 27, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Defining a baseline for the frequency of off-normal occurrences at
underground natural gas storage facilities is critical to maintaining
safe operation and to the development of appropriate risk management
plans and regulatory approaches. Currently used frequency-estimation
methods are broadened to include critical factors of cause, severity,
and uncertainty that contribute to risk. A Bayesian probabilistic
analysis characterizes the aleatoric historical occurrence frequencies
given imperfect sampling. Occurrence frequencies for the three main
storage facility types in the United States (depleted oil-and-gas field
storage, aquifer storage, solution-mined salt cavern storage) are
generally on the order of 3 to 9 x 10--2 occurrences, of all causes
(surface, well integrity, subsurface integrity) and severities
(nuisance, serious, catastrophic), per facility-year. Loss of well
integrity is associated with many, but not all, occurrences either
within the subsurface or from there up to the surface. The probability
of one serious or catastrophic leakage occurrence to the ground surface
within the next 10 years, assuming constant number of facilities, is
approximately 0.1--0.3\% for any facility type. Storage operators and
industry regulators can use occurrence frequencies, their associated
probabilities and uncertainties, and forecasts for severity magnitudes
to better prioritize resources, establish a baseline against which
progress toward achieving a reduction target is measured, and develop
more effective mitigation/monitoring/reduction programs in a risk
management plan.%
\end{abstract}%



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