Characterizing Climate Impacts on Crop Yield by Integrating Radiative
Transfer and Photosynthesis Processes into Agricultural System Models
Abstract
Crop yield is sensitive to climate change and has been projected to be
negatively affected by future climate. To reduce yield loss and ensure
food security in the context of climate change, it is critical to
understand how climate variables interact with crop growth in
agroecosystems. One important and widely used tool to study yield
responses to climate is process-based modeling. However, using
process-based models to simulate the climate impacts on crops is
becoming challengeable as the future climate is characterized by more
and more frequent extreme events, such as heatwaves, unpredictable
rainfall, and droughts. Most existing crop models may not be capable of
characterizing the impacts of such extreme events on crops simply
because they usually do not simulate some critical processes that
climate variables directly affect crop growth such as photosynthesis.
Instead, they use a simplified approach–radiation-use efficiency (RUE)
which is a coefficient to describe empirical relationships between
intercepted radiation and biomass. The usage of RUE has simplified
computation but also limited our understanding of interactions between
climate variables (e.g., temperature, CO2, rainfall) and crop growth.
Thus, we developed a module combining processes of radiative transfer
and photosynthesis (RP) within the canopy to account for the impacts of
climate variables on crop growth dynamically. Then, we integrated the RP
module into a popular agricultural system model—the Environmental
Policy Integrated Climate (EPIC) to assess its performance. The results
show that its capabilities of predicting crop yield are comparable to
the traditional RUE method. The correlation between observed and
simulated biomass is 0.77 for the RUE method, while 0.76 for the RP
method. But the RP method could show responses of biomass accumulation
to changes in climate factors, which is almost overwhelming for RUE. For
instance, the RP module could simulate how extremely high temperatures
(which usually last several hours during a day) affect crop growth and
also allow the EPIC to distinguish elevated CO2 impacts on C3 and C4
crops, while the default RUE method could not. Therefore, the RP module
is promising to improve capabilities and extend functionalities of
current process-based models, which is not only beneficial to the
community of crop modeling but also enhances our ability to evaluate the
impacts of climate change on the agroecosystem.