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The temporal limits of predicting fault failure
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  • Kun Wang,
  • Christopher Johnson,
  • Kane Bennett,
  • Paul Johnson
Kun Wang
Los Alamos National Laboratory

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Christopher Johnson
Los Alamos National Laboratory,Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Kane Bennett
Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Paul Johnson
Los Alamos National Laboratory
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Abstract

Machine learning models using seismic emissions can predict instantaneous fault characteristics such as displacement in laboratory experiments and slow slip in Earth. Here, we address whether the acoustic emission (AE) from laboratory experiments contains information about near-future frictional behavior. The approach uses a convolutional encoder-decoder containing a transformer layer. We use as input progressively larger AE input time windows and progressively larger output friction time windows. The attention map from the transformer is used to interpret which regions of the AE contain hidden information corresponding to future frictional behavior. We find that very near-term predictive information is indeed contained in the AE signal, but farther into the future the predictions are progressively worse. Notably, information for predicting near future frictional failure and recovery are found to be contained in the AE signal. This first effort predicting future fault frictional behavior with machine learning will guide efforts for applications in Earth.