Abstract
Over the last several decades, the study of Earth surface processes has
progressed from a descriptive science to an increasingly quantitative
one due to advances in theoretical, experimental, and computational
geosciences. The importance of geomorphic forecasts has never been
greater, as technological development and global climate change threaten
to reshape the landscapes that support human societies and natural
ecosystems. Here we explore best practices for developing
socially-relevant forecasts of Earth surface change, a goal we are
calling “earthcasting”. We suggest that earthcasts have the following
features: they focus on temporal (~1 to
~100 years) and spatial (~1 m to
~10 km) scales relevant to planning; they are designed
with direct involvement of stakeholders and public beneficiaries through
the evaluation of the socioeconomic impacts of geomorphic processes; and
they generate forecasts that are clearly stated, testable, and include
quantitative uncertainties. Earthcasts bridge the gap between Earth
surface researchers and decision-makers, stakeholders, researchers from
other disciplines, and the general public. We investigate the defining
features of earthcasts and evaluate some specific examples. This paper
builds on previous studies of prediction in geomorphology by
recommending a roadmap for (i) generating earthcasts, especially those
based on modeling; (ii) transforming a subset of geomorphic research
into earthcasts; and (iii) communicating earthcasts beyond the
geomorphology research community. Earthcasting exemplifies the social
benefit of geomorphology research, and it calls for renewed research
efforts toward further understanding the limits of predictability of
Earth surface systems and processes, and the uncertainties associated
with modeling geomorphic processes and their impacts.