Assesment Of The Long-Term Changes In Sub-Daily Precipitation In A
Tropical Complex-Terrain Region: Extreme Events And Their Relation
With Temperature Increase
Abstract
During the last few years, the debate over the changes in the global
average temperature has been one of the most important political issues.
A better understanding of the effects of the temperature increase on
other variables is one of the main challenges in climate. In the last
IPCC report, due in part to the limited rainfall data in the tropics,
there is no reliable conclusion about the observed and expected
long-term precipitation changes in association with the global
temperature increase. Since water resources are essential for energy
generation and food production in the Department of Antioquia, Colombia,
a better understanding of changes in rainfall in the long term becomes a
vital tool for decision making. This research presents an assessment of
rain variability at different temporal and spatial scales over Colombia,
and more specifically over Antioquia. The data used was corresponds to
long-term records of 86 rain gauges, in addition to 9 temperature
stations, and TRMM precipitation products. The use of in-situ rain gauge
information allows focusing on a spatial scale useful not only for a
general understanding of precipitation changes but also for engineering
and other practical applications. Analyses reveal that while there are
no long-term trends in precipitation at the monthly or longer
timescales, relatively short-lived extreme events show long-term changes
in intensity and frequency. Results show that the shorter the duration
of the intense events, the higher the magnitude of the increasing
intensity trend. Similarly, for more intense events, the trends are also
larger and more significant from a statistical point of view. Analysis
of temperatures shows a clear relationship with extreme precipitation
events with scaling features explained via the Clausius-Clapeyron
relation, controlling the intensification of precipitation. The
long-term rainfall trends are compared with modeling results from the
different scenarios of a small set of CMIP runs given that most models
do not adequately represent Colombia´s precipitation climatology. The
results indicate a substantial reduction of return period of extreme
events with implications in engineering: the current hydraulic designs
would be obsolete in less than 50 years if the increment in the
frequency of intense events is not considered in the design.