The Impact of Black Carbon Emissions from Projected Arctic Shipping on
Regional Ice Transport
Abstract
The direct and indirect effects of global emissions of black carbon (BC)
on the evolution of Arctic climate has been well documented. The
significance of within-Arctic emissions of BC is less certain. In light
of this, an ensemble of scenarios are developed that simulate the
hypothetical diversion of 75% of current and projected shipping traffic
from the Suez Canal to the Northern Sea Route (NSR). This experiment
shows that BC from ships results in a small change in climate forcing
that does not influence the Arctic-wide trajectory of change. However,
the shift in forcing from the Suez route to the NSR not only influences
regional evolution of sea ice cover, but also results in regional
feedbacks that in some locations amplify (e.g. Greenland Sea) and in
other locations damp (e.g. Labrador Sea) the sea ice retreat under
anthropogenic climate change. The primary mechanism underlying these
regional effects is a shift in circulation rather than direct
thermodynamic forcing. The most significant impacts are distal from the
emissions sources, which is likely to have policy implications as the
expansion of industrial and transportation activities into the Arctic is
considered.