Abstract
The predictability of stratospheric sudden warming (SSW) events are
considered in 10 subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast models for 10
SSWs over the period 1999-2009. The 10 SSWs are divided into those with
above-average predictability (in one case exceeding 20 days),
below-average predictability, and average predictability. The four
factors that most succinctly distinguish the composite with above
average predictability are an active Madden-Julian Oscillation with
enhanced convection in the West Pacific, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation
phase with easterlies in the lower stratosphere, a strong SSW, and a
strong pulse of wave activity in the week before the event. Other
factors, such as El Nino, stratospheric preconditioning, and the
morphology (split vs. displacement) are comparatively less important.