Development of Forest Fire Risk Map for Budhabalanga River basin in
India using Analytical Hierarchical Process
Abstract
In recent decades, major growth is observed in wildfire incidents across
the globe. These ecological disasters, triggered by natural and/or
anthropogenic factors, can have long-lasting effects on the environment,
ecosystems, and biodiversity. Advancements in remote sensing technology
provided an impetus to forest fires research, enabling precise
determination of the geographical locations susceptible to fire and
assess fire risk. This study focuses on India, whose total forest cover
(71.22 Mha) is about 21.67% of the country’s total geographical area.
Around 90% of the forest fires in India are attributable to
anthropogenic factors. Therefore, the generation of a forest fire risk
map (FRM) is essential for devising strategies to mitigate/manage forest
fires and avert their disastrous impacts. An attempt is made to develop
FRM for the Budhabalanga river basin, which contains the Similipal
national park, a part of the UNESCO World Network of Biosphere Reserves.
For this purpose, covariates affecting forest fire are identified viz.
fuel (vegetation), topographic features (elevation, aspect, and slope),
and human activities. The covariates are assigned weights, depicting
their relative importance in influencing the fire, byusing Analytical
Hierarchical Process (AHP). The AHP is a widely used technique in
multi-criteria decision-making models. The Similipal national park has
experienced a prolonged dry spell and below-average monsoon in 2020. The
consequent dry conditions led to a significant forest fire event in the
last week of February 2021, which lasted nearly three weeks. Fine (30m)
resolution satellite data (Landsat-8) are used to calculate the
Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) corresponding to the study
area to assess vegetation conditions before the fire event. Furthermore,
Cartosat-1 Digital Elevation Model (24m resolution) is used to extract
topographic-related information. The FRM generated for the basin using
the assigned weights was 80% accurate when validated with 375m
resolution NASA’s VIIRS (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite) fire
point data for the analyzed fire event. Hence, the methodology
considered for developing FRM appears promising. It can be extended to
other river basins for identifying fire risk zones and devise timely
strategies to mitigate fire risk.