Assimilating the Southern Annular Mode over the Common Era using Drought
Atlases and a Global Proxy Network
Abstract
The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is the leading mode of atmospheric
variability in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, and its variations
affect westerly winds, regional storm tracks, midlatitude wildfire
activity, Antarctic and Southern Ocean dynamics, and surface mass
balance. The SAM is therefore of high importance to both ecosystems and
societies across the Southern Hemisphere. The behavior of the SAM has
been extensively studied during the instrumental era, but there is
substantially less confidence and considerable disagreement in its
decadal to centennial-scale variability over the Common Era. Studying
these longer time scales requires millennial-length reconstructions, but
the sparsity of multi-century proxy records in the Southern Hemisphere
has hindered the production of such reconstructions. Consequently,
variability and trends in the SAM remain uncertain through most of the
Common Era. Here, we use paleoclimate data assimilation to reconstruct
the austral summer (DJF) SAM index (SAMI) over the entire Common Era.
Our method integrates the South American Drought Atlas, Australia-New
Zealand Drought Atlas, and the PAGES2k temperature-sensitive proxy
network with a multi-model ensemble of last millennium GCM simulations
using an offline ensemble Kalman Filter with a stationary prior. We use
a novel nested variance adjustment to correct for the effect of changing
proxy availability through time. Our reconstruction is not calibrated to
the observed SAMI, yet exhibits a correlation coefficient greater than
0.6 over the instrumental era. Using superposed-epoch and wavelet
analyses, we find the reconstruction exhibits minimal response to
volcanic and solar forcings and is instead dominated by internal climate
variability until the late 20th century. Our data assimilation framework
also facilitates the use of optimal-sensor analysis, which we use to
identify key proxy sites at different time periods in the
reconstruction. Prior to 1400 CE, the reconstruction is strongly
influenced by two tree-ring records (Mt. Read, Tasmania and Oroko, New
Zealand) and two ice-cores (WDC05A and Plateau Remote). Finally, we
examine the coherence of our results against existing reconstructions
and compare reconstructed 20th century trends with the instrumental
record.