Assessing the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on discharge variability in western
North America
Abstract
Flood frequency analysis assumes that annual peak flood events occur
independently of each other, regardless of previous flood events (the
independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption); however,
annual peak flood records do not necessarily appear to conform to these
assumptions. We tested the i.i.d assumption by analyzing the effects of
the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal
Oscillation (AMO) on 250 naturally flowing annual peak flood records
across the entire western North American margin. Using permutation tests
on quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plots, we found that the PDO has a greater
impact on the magnitude of annual peak floods than the AMO. Twenty-six
percent of the gauges have higher magnitude annual floods depending on
the PDO phase (p < 0.1). Next, we examined the interacting
effects of the PDO and AMO on the frequencies of lower and upper
quartile annual peak floods, and found reinforcing, cancelling, and
dominating effects. Lastly, we used permutation t-tests on the Julian
dates of seasonal maximum and minimum streamflows to assess the impact
of the PDO and AMO. We found that the PDO and AMO have substantial
effects on the dates of winter maximum and summer minimum streamflow
dates across the coastal margin. Since these two climate oscillations
have significant effects on the magnitudes of annual peak floods, the
i.i.d. assumption does not hold. Hence, we advocate for the need to
re-assess baseline flood analysis in western North America to improve
flood management strategies.