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Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP6 ensemble
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  • Jeong-Soo Park,
  • Yonggwan Shin,
  • Yire Shin,
  • Juyoung Hong,
  • Maeong-Ki Kim,
  • Young-Hwa Byun,
  • Kyung-On Boo,
  • Il-Ung Chung,
  • Doo-Sun R Park
Jeong-Soo Park
Chonnam National University

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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Yonggwan Shin
Chonnam National University
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Yire Shin
Chonnam National University
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Juyoung Hong
Chonnam National University
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Maeong-Ki Kim
Kongju National University
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Young-Hwa Byun
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences
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Kyung-On Boo
National Institute of Meteorological Sciences
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Il-Ung Chung
Dept of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences
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Doo-Sun R Park
Kyungpook National University
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Abstract

Projected changes in extreme climate are occasionally predicted through multi-model ensemble methods using a weighted averaging that combines predictions from individual simulation models. To predict future changes in precipitation extremes, observed data and 21 of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are examined for 46 grids over the Korean peninsula. We apply the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) to the series of annual maximum daily precipitation (AMP1) data. Simulation data under three shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios, namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, are used. A multivariate bias correction technique that considers the spatial dependency between nearby grids is applied to these simulation data. In addition, a model weighting approach that accounts for both performance and independence (PI-weighting) is employed. In this study, we estimate the future changes in precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula using the multiple CMIP6 models and PI-weighting method. In applying the PI-weighting, we suggest simple ways for selecting two shape 1 parameters based on the chi-square statistic and entropy. Variance decomposition with the interaction term between the CMIP6 model and the SSP scenario is applied to quantify the uncertainty of projecting the future AMP1. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1973-2014), are estimated for three future overlapping periods, namely, period 1 (2021-2050), period 2 (2046-2075), and period 3 (2071-2100). From these analyses, we estimate that relative increases in the observations for the spatial median 20-year (50-year) return level will be approximately 16.4% (16.5%) in the SSP2-4.5, 22.9% (22.8%) in the SSP3-7.0, and 37.6% (35.4%) in the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. The expected frequency of the reoccurring years, particularly for the AMP1 from 150 mm to 300 mm under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, are projected to increase by approximately 1.4 times that of the past 30 years for period 1, approximately 2.3 times that for period 2, and approximately 3.5 times that for period 3. From the analysis based on latitude, severe rainfall was found to be more prominent in the southern and central parts of the Korean peninsula.