Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes
in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP6 ensemble
Abstract
Projected changes in extreme climate are occasionally predicted through
multi-model ensemble methods using a weighted averaging that combines
predictions from individual simulation models. To predict future changes
in precipitation extremes, observed data and 21 of the Coupled Model
Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models are examined for 46
grids over the Korean peninsula. We apply the generalized extreme value
distribution (GEVD) to the series of annual maximum daily precipitation
(AMP1) data. Simulation data under three shared socioeconomic pathway
(SSP) scenarios, namely, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5, are used. A
multivariate bias correction technique that considers the spatial
dependency between nearby grids is applied to these simulation data. In
addition, a model weighting approach that accounts for both performance
and independence (PI-weighting) is employed. In this study, we estimate
the future changes in precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula
using the multiple CMIP6 models and PI-weighting method. In applying the
PI-weighting, we suggest simple ways for selecting two shape 1
parameters based on the chi-square statistic and entropy. Variance
decomposition with the interaction term between the CMIP6 model and the
SSP scenario is applied to quantify the uncertainty of projecting the
future AMP1. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the
return periods relative to the reference years (1973-2014), are
estimated for three future overlapping periods, namely, period 1
(2021-2050), period 2 (2046-2075), and period 3 (2071-2100). From these
analyses, we estimate that relative increases in the observations for
the spatial median 20-year (50-year) return level will be approximately
16.4% (16.5%) in the SSP2-4.5, 22.9% (22.8%) in the SSP3-7.0, and
37.6% (35.4%) in the SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, by the end of
the 21st century. The expected frequency of the reoccurring years,
particularly for the AMP1 from 150 mm to 300 mm under the SSP5-8.5
scenario, are projected to increase by approximately 1.4 times that of
the past 30 years for period 1, approximately 2.3 times that for period
2, and approximately 3.5 times that for period 3. From the analysis
based on latitude, severe rainfall was found to be more prominent in the
southern and central parts of the Korean peninsula.