Stratospheric Sulfate Aerosols impacts on West African monsoon
precipitation using GeoMIP Models
Abstract
Stratospheric Aerosol Geoengineering (SAG) is proposed to offset global
warming; the use of this approach can impact the hydrological cycle. We
use simulations from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and
Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (G3 simulation) to analyze
the impacts of SAG on precipitation (P) and to determine its responsible
causes in West Africa and Sahel region. CMIP5 Historical data are
firstly validated, the results obtained are consistent with those of
observations data (CMAP and GPCP). Under the Representative
Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenario RCP4.5, a slight increase is found
in West Africa Region (WAR) relative to present-day climate. The dynamic
processes especially the monsoon shifts are responsible for this change
of precipitation. Under RCP4.5, during the monsoon period, reductions in
P are 0.86%, 0.80% related to the present-day climate in the Northern
Sahel (NSA), Southern Sahel (SSA) respectively while P is increased by
1.04% in WAR. Under SAG, 3.71% of P change (decrease) was associated
with a -3.51 value of efficacy in the West African Region (AR). Under
G3, a significant decrease of P is found in the West African region.
This decrease in monsoon precipitation is mainly explained by changes in
dynamics, which leads to weakened monsoon circulation and a shift in the
distribution of monsoon precipitation. This result suggests that SAG
deployment to balancing all warming can be harmful to rainfall in WAR if
the amount of SO2 to be injected in this tropical area
is not taken into consideration.