Perturbation of boundary conditions to create appropriate ensembles for
regional data assimilation in coastal estuary modeling
Abstract
Regional data assimilation is conducted for a coastal estuary using the
ensemble Kalman filter, real observation data from Ise Bay, Japan, and a
simulation model called the Ise Bay Simulator. The applicability and
robustness of the method are then examined. We also analyze the
relationship between the boundary conditions, which add perturbations
and the data assimilation results of water temperature and salinity. A
method of creating an ensemble by perturbing three boundary conditions
(atmospheric forcing, lateral boundary conditions, river discharge
forcing) is then proposed. In situ water temperature and salinity
profiles observed at fixed points are assimilated daily. The proposed
assimilation method provides stable data assimilation without unnatural
values for water temperature and salinity throughout the year. Further,
applying a perturbation to the three boundary conditions does not lead
to filter divergence, thus indicating good applicability and robustness.
Applying a perturbation to the three boundary conditions does not
degenerate the ensemble spread. According to a sensitivity experiment,
perturbing the atmospheric boundary conditions of air temperature and
wind speed increases the ensemble spread of water temperature,
especially near the surface layer. Wind speed has the greatest influence
on the magnitude of the salinity ensemble spread, and its dominance
depends on location. Perturbation of lateral boundary conditions
increases the ensemble spread of water temperature and salinity at all
water depths near the bay mouth, and the observations are effectively
assimilated. Perturbation of river discharge forcing successfully
assimilates water temperature and salinity near the estuary.