What physical mechanisms cause positive subtropical low cloud feedbacks
in climate models?
Abstract
We investigate positive subtropical low cloud feedback mechanisms in
climate models which have performed the CMIP6/CFMIP-3 AMIP and AMIP
uniform +4K experiments while saving CFMIP-3 process diagnostics on
model levels. Our analysis focuses on the trade cumulus/stratocumulus
transition region between California and Hawaii, where positive low
cloud feedbacks are present in the JJA season. We introduce a
methodology to} test various positive cloud feedback mechanisms
proposed in the literature as primary explanations for the low cloud
responses in the models. Causal hypotheses are tested by comparing their
predictions with the models’ responses of clouds, cloud controlling
factors, boundary layer depth and temperature/humidity tendencies to
climate warming. Changes in boundary layer depth, relative humidity in
the cloud layer and humidity advection at the top of the boundary layer
are shown to distinguish among the hypotheses considered. For the cases
examined, our approach rules out 4/5 of the mechanisms considered in
half of the models and 3/5 in the remainder. We argue that unambiguously
identifying the positive feedback mechanisms operating in models will in
some cases require intervention experiments designed to test specific
hypotheses.