Targeted observations based on sensitive areas identified by CNOP to
improve the thermal structure predictions in the summer Yellow Sea:
operation in the field
Abstract
Targeted observation is an appealing procedure for improving model
predictions through the assimilation of additional collected
measurements. However, studies on targeted observations in the oceanic
field have been largely based on modeling efforts, and there is a need
for field validating operations. Here, we report the results of a field
program that is designed based on the sensitive areas identified by the
Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation (CNOP) approach to improve
the short-range (7 days) summer thermal structure prediction in the
Yellow Sea. We found good spatial consistency in the locations of the
identified sensitive areas among the hindcast and climatology runs. By
introducing the technique of cycle data assimilation and the new concept
of time-varying sensitive areas, we designed an observing strategy based
on the identified sensitive areas, and conducted a set of Observing
System Simulation Experiments prior to assessing the effectiveness of
the plan on later observations. On this basis, the impact of targeted
observations was investigated by a choreographed field campaign in the
summer of 2019. The results of the in-field Observing System Experiments
show that compared to conventional local data assimilation, conducting
targeted observations in sensitive areas can double the benefits of data
assimilation in thermal structure prediction. Furthermore, dynamic
analysis demonstrates that the refinement of vertical thermal structures
is mainly caused by the changes in the upstream horizontally advected
temperature driven by the Yellow Sea Cold Water Mass circulation. This
study highlights the effectiveness of targeted observations on reducing
the forecast uncertainty in the ocean.