Stratospheric ozone changes from explosive tropical volcanoes: Modelling
and ice core constraints
Abstract
Major tropical volcanic eruptions have emitted large quantities of
stratospheric sulphate and are potential sources of stratospheric
chlorine although this is less well constrained by observations. This
study combines model and ice core analysis to investigate past changes
in total column ozone. Historic eruptions are a good analogue for future
eruptions as stratospheric chlorine levels have been decreasing since
the year 2000. We perturb the pre-industrial atmosphere of a
chemistry-climate model with high and low emissions of sulphate and
chlorine. The sign of the resulting Antarctic ozone change is highly
sensitive to the background stratospheric chlorine loading. In the first
year, the response is dynamical, with ozone increases over Antarctica.
In the high HCl (10 Tg emission) experiment, the injected chlorine is
slowly transported to the polar regions with subsequent chemical ozone
depletion. These model results are then compared to measurements of the
stable nitrogen isotopic ratio, δ15N(NO−3), from a low snow accumulation
Antarctic ice core from Dronning Maud Land (recovered in 2016-17). We
expect ozone depletion to lead to increased surface ultraviolet (UV)
radiation, enhanced air-snow nitrate photo-chemistry and enrichment in
δ15N(NO−3) in the ice core. We focus on the possible ozone depletion
event that followed the largest volcanic eruption in the past 1000
years, Samalas in 1257. The characteristic sulphate signal from this
volcano is present in the ice-core but the variability in the δ15N(NO−3)
dominates any signal arising from changes in UV from ozone depletion.
Whether Samalas caused ozone depletion over Antarctica remains an open
question.