Sensitivity of Observationally Based Estimates of Ocean Heat Content and
Thermal Expansion to Vertical Interpolation Schemes
Abstract
Changes in ocean heat content are a critical element of climate change,
with the oceans containing about 90% of the excess heat stored in the
climate system (60% in the upper 700 db). Estimates of these changes
are sensitive to horizontal mapping of the sparse historical data and
errors in eXpendable BathyThermograph data. Here we show that they are
also sensitive to the vertical interpolation of sparsely sampled data
through the water column. We estimate, using carefully constructed
vertical interpolation methods with high-quality hydrographic (bottle
and CTD) data, the observationally based upper ocean heat content
increase (thermosteric sea level rise) from 1956 to 2020 is 285 Zeta
Joules (0.55 mm yr-1), 14% (14%) larger than
estimates relying on simple but biased linear interpolation schemes. The
underestimates have a clear spatial pattern with their maximum near 15ºN
and 12ºS, near the maxima in the curvature of the temperature depth
profile.