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\begin{document}

\title{TransPurus: Amazonia's biogeochemical cycles depend on the fate of the
region's largest block of intact forest}



\author[1]{Philip Fearnside}%
\affil[1]{INPA National Institute of Amazonian Research}%


\vspace{-1em}



  
  \date{May 17, 2024}


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\begin{abstract}
Brazil's Amazon deforestation is one of the world's great environmental
problems, and the fate of the ``TransPurus'' region -- the vast block of
intact forest to the west of the Purus River in Brazil's state of
Amazonas -- will be the deciding factor in maintaining Amazonia's
biogeochemical cycles and associated ecosystem services, including
carbon storage and water cycling and biodiversity. The Purus River
effectively divides Brazilian Amazonia between its eastern side (where
the forest has been heavily affected by deforestation, fragmentation and
degradation), and the western side (where the forest is largely intact
due to lack of accessibility by road). This situation in western
Amazonia is likely to change radically if the proposed AM-366 and
associated roads are built, opening this block of forest with a
connection to Highway BR-319 (Manaus-Porto Velho). The AM-366 would
cross the Purus River at Tapau\selectlanguage{ngerman}á and link BR-319 to Tefé, Coarí and
Juruá. BR-319 is a highway that was-abandoned in 1988 but that has been
``maintained'' since 2015 while awaiting approval of a federal
environmental impact assessment (EIA) before being ``reconstructed.''
Another threat comes from the ``Solimões Sedimentary Basin'' project
that would open a substantial part of the TranPurus area to oil and gas
drilling, potentially totaling thousands of wells. This would greatly
increase the probability of roads being built to reduce the costs of
servicing these wells. Roads are the primary drivers of deforestation in
Brazil. The TransPurus area would be subject to invasion by actors
ranging from landless farmers to large ``land grabbers'' (grileiros),
and would be likely to attract oil palm and logging interests. Logging
can potentially provoke large-scale forest degradation in conjunction
with its increasing the vulnerability of forest to fire. Should the huge
area of intact forest in this region be lost, potential release of
greenhouse gases would be of a scale that could be a key factor in
pushing global temperatures beyond a ``tipping point'' leading to global
warming escaping from human control to begin a ``runaway greenhouse''
ending in a ``hothouse Earth.'' It would also threaten the source of
water vapor for the ``flying rivers'' -- winds that carry water vapor
recycled through Amazonian trees to São Paulo and other parts of Brazil
and neighboring countries.%
\end{abstract}\selectlanguage{ngerman}%



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