Climate Response to Volcano-like Pulse Versus Sustained Stratospheric
Aerosol Forcing
Abstract
Solar geoengineering has been suggested as a potential approach to
counteract the anthropogenic global warming. Major volcanic eruptions
have been used as natural analogues to large-scale deployments of
stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, yet difference in climate
responses to these forcings remains unclear. Among many factors
characterizing the difference between the two, durations of the
additional aerosol layer in the stratosphere differ substantially
between volcanic eruptions and the SAI geoengineering. Sulfate aerosols
from volcanic eruptions typically stay in the stratosphere for one to
two years. Stratospheric aerosol geoengineering, however, if used to
counteract anthropogenic warming, would need to be deployed
quasi-continuously and thus the additional aerosols would stay in the
stratosphere persistently. Using the NCAR CESM model, we compare the
climate response to two highly idealized stratospheric aerosol forcings
that have different durations: a short-term pulse representative of
volcanic eruptions and a long-term sustained forcing representative of
geoengineering. For the same amount of global mean cooling, the pulse
case causes much larger reductions in surface temperature over land
relative to the sustained case. This greater cooling over land leads to
a larger decrease in the vertical motion of air over land in lower
atmosphere, and reduces water vapor transport from the ocean to land.
For similar amounts of global cooling, the decrease in land runoff
caused by a short-term pulse aerosol forcing is about twice as large as
that caused by a sustained aerosol forcing. Our results clearly
demonstrate difference in the climate response to volcanic-like and
geoengineering-like stratospheric aerosol forcings, and suggest that
caution should be exercised when extrapolating results from volcanic
eruptions to the SAI geoengineering deployments. However, observations
and simulations of climate impacts from volcanic eruptions test many of
the same physical mechanisms that would come into play in a
stratospheric aerosol geoengineering scenario, and thus major volcanic
eruptions remain as valuable analogues for solar geoengineering
deployment.