Global Simulation of Land Use/Cover Change Under Shared Socioeconomic
Pathways and Impacts On Aboveground Biomass Carbon
Abstract
Land use change driven by human activities plays a critical role in
terrestrial carbon budget through habitats loss and vegetation change.
Despite projections of global population and economic growth under the
framework of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) have been
analyzed, little is known about land use /cover change (LUCC) at a fine
spatial resolution and how carbon pools respond to LUCC under different
SSP scenarios. Here, we projected the future global LUCC at 1‐km spatial
resolution and 10‐year time step from 2010 to 2100, after which its
direct impacts on aboveground biomass carbon (AGB) under SSP scenarios
were explored. We found that scenario SSP3 yields the highest global
cropland expansion, among which about 48% is expected to locate in
current forest land and 46% locate in current grassland. Scenario SSP1
has the largest forest expansion, and it is mainly converted from the
grassland (54%) and cropland (30%). Due to the spatial change of land
use/cover, global AGB loss is expected to reach about 9.16 Pg C in 2100
under scenario SSP3 while increase about 1.75 Pg C under scenario SSP1.
Africa is expected to undergo 58% loss of AGB under scenario SSP3.
Aboveground biomass in Asia will fix 3.05 Pg C to reverse the AGB loss
in 2100 under scenario SSP1. These findings suggest land use development
and management is one of key measures to mitigate negative impacts of
LUCC on biomass carbon pool.