SERMeQ model produces a realistic upper bound on calving retreat for 155
Greenland outlet glaciers
The rate of land ice loss due to iceberg calving is a key source of
variability among model projections of 21st century sea-level rise. It
is especially challenging to account for mass loss due to iceberg
calving in Greenland, where ice drains to the ocean through hundreds of
outlet glaciers, many smaller than typical model grid scale. Here, we
apply a numerically efficient network flowline model (SERMeQ) forced by
surface mass balance to simulate an upper bound on decadal calving
retreat of 155 grounded outlet glaciers of the Greenland Ice
Sheet—resolving five times as many outlets as was previously possible.
We show that the upper bound holds for 91\% of glaciers
examined and that simulated changes in terminus position correlate with
observed changes. SERMeQ can provide a physically consistent constraint
on forward projections of the dynamic mass loss from the Greenland Ice
Sheet associated with different climate projections.