Genesis locations of the costliest atmospheric rivers impacting the
Western United States
Abstract
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for the vast majority
(approximately 88%) of flood damage in the Western U.S, an annual
average of USD$1.1 billion. Here, using historical flood insurance
data, we investigate the genesis characteristics of damaging ARs in the
Western U.S. ARs exceeding USD$20 million in damage
(90th percentile), are shown to travel further across
the Pacific Ocean, with median genesis locations 8° to 27° longitude
further westward compared to typical ARs. Identifying regions of
preferential genesis of damaging ARs elicit important implications for
AR observation campaigns, highlighting distant regions not currently
considered for AR reconnaissance. The genesis of damaging ARs is
associated with elevated upper-level zonal wind speeds along with deeper
cyclonic anomalies, most pronounced for Washington and Oregon ARs.
Linking AR dynamics and lifecycle characteristics to economic damage
provides an opportunity for impact-based forecasting of ARs prior to
landfall, supporting efforts to mitigate extreme flood damages.