The Music of Rivers: How the Mathematics of Waves Reveals Global Drivers
of Streamflow Regime
Abstract
River flow changes on timescales ranging from minutes to millennia.
These variations influence fundamental functions of ecosystems,
including biogeochemical fluxes, aquatic habitat, and human society.
Efforts to describe temporal variation in river flow—i.e. flow
regime—have resulted in hundreds of unique descriptors, complicating
interpretation and identification of global drivers of overall flow
regime. In this study, we used three analytical approaches to
investigate three related questions: 1. how interrelated are flow regime
metrics, 2. what catchment characteristics are most associated with flow
regime at different timescales globally, and 3. what hydrological
processes could explain these associations? To answer these questions,
we analyzed a new global database of river discharge from 3,685 stations
with coverage from 1987 to 2016. We calculated and condensed 189
traditional flow metrics via principal components analysis (PCA). We
then used wavelet analysis to perform a frequency decomposition of each
time series, allowing comparison with the flow metrics and
characterization of variation in flow at different timescales across
sites. Finally, we used three machine learning algorithms to relate flow
regime to catchment properties, including climate, land-use, and
ecosystem characteristics. For both the PCA and wavelet analysis, just a
few catchment properties (catchment size, precipitation, and
temperature) were sufficient to predict most aspects of flow regime
across sites. The wavelet analysis revealed that variability in flow at
short timescales was negatively correlated with variability at long
timescales. We propose a hydrological framework that integrates these
dynamics across daily to decadal timescales, which we call the
Budyko-Darcy hypothesis.