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Evidences of coupling between El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Dengue incidence in Colombia
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  • Estefania Munoz,
  • María Arbelaez,
  • Lina Zuluaga,
  • Luis Martínez,
  • Iván Vélez,
  • Víctor Villa
Estefania Munoz
Universidad Nacional de Colombia; PECET - World Mosquito Program Colombia

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

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María Arbelaez
PECET - World Mosquito Program Colombia
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Lina Zuluaga
PECET - World Mosquito Program Colombia
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Luis Martínez
PECET - World Mosquito Program Colombia
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Iván Vélez
PECET - World Mosquito Program Colombia
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Víctor Villa
PECET - World Mosquito Program Colombia
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Abstract

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is the main mechanism forcing climate variability in tropical South America in several timescales, impacting the life cycles of disease vectors and host/vector relationships. The dengue is a vector-borne disease with great socioeconomic impact in Colombia, being the arbovirus with the highest mortality. In this analysis, we related the records of Dengue cases registered in Colombia in the period 2007-2017 and the series of sea surface temperature anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region. Furthermore, we studied the effect of the ENSO on precipitation, relative humidity, maximum and minimum air temperature, and wind velocity in Colombia to understand the impact of the ENSO in the dengue incidence. The effect of the ENSO on climatic variables spatially varies. During the warm (cold) phase, i.e., El Niño (La Niña), the maximum and minimum air temperature increase (decrease) throughout the country, but in the Amazonian region, it is less likely to occur. During El Niño the mean rainfall decreases, except in the Orinoquía region where it can increase. In the Pacific and Caribbean regions, rainfall is more likely to decrease in this phase of the ENSO, while surface radiation increases in the Andean region. Wind speed increases in the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions, and decreases in the Orinoquía and Amazonian regions. El Niño phase intensifies the incidence rate of Dengue in the Andean, Caribbean, and Pacific regions (correlation between 0.3 and 0.8 with 95% of confidence for lags between 1 and 14 months approximately) and La Niña in the Amazonian and Orinoquía regions (correlation between 0.2 and 0.5 with 95% of confidence for lags between 10 and 20 months approximately). The above should be explained by the decreasing in rainfall and increasing on temperature and wind velocity (less relative humidity) in the Andean, Caribbean and Pacific regions, and the increase in radiation in the Andean region during El Niño. On the other hand, during La Niña, rainfall decreases in the Orinoquía region and decreases on the temperature are unlike in the Amazonian region.