loading page

Ocean-only FAFMIP: Understanding Regional Patterns of Ocean Heat Content and Dynamic Sea Level Change.
  • +9
  • Alexander Todd,
  • Laure Zanna,
  • Matthew Couldrey,
  • Jonathan M. Gregory,
  • Quran Wu,
  • John Alexander Church,
  • Riccardo Farneti,
  • René Navarro-Labastida,
  • Kewei Lyu,
  • Oleg A. Saenko,
  • Duo Yang,
  • Xuebin Zhang
Alexander Todd
University of Oxford

Corresponding Author:[email protected]

Author Profile
Laure Zanna
New York University Courant Institute
Author Profile
Matthew Couldrey
University of Reading
Author Profile
Jonathan M. Gregory
University of Reading
Author Profile
Quran Wu
University of Reading
Author Profile
John Alexander Church
Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research
Author Profile
Riccardo Farneti
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Author Profile
René Navarro-Labastida
Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics
Author Profile
Kewei Lyu
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere
Author Profile
Oleg A. Saenko
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Author Profile
Duo Yang
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
Author Profile
Xuebin Zhang
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
Author Profile

Abstract

There is large uncertainty in the future sea level change at regional scales under anthropogenic global warming. This study uses a novel design of ocean-only general circulation model (OGCM) experiments to investigate the ocean’s response to surface buoyancy and momentum flux perturbations, as part of the Flux-Anomaly-Forced Model Intercomparison Project (FAFMIP), and compares with results from coupled, atmosphere-ocean GCM (AOGCM) experiments. Much of the inter-model spread is driven by the response to surface heat flux perturbations. In a multi-model ensemble of OGCMs forced with identical surface heat flux perturbations, regional sea level and ocean heat content changes demonstrate considerable disagreement, especially in the North Atlantic. Spread in both residual mean advection and diapycnal diffusion changes contribute to much of the multi-model disagreement over regional heat content change. Residual mean advection changes are related to the large spread in simulated Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) weakening (20-50%). We find approximately 10% more AMOC weakening in response to surface heat flux perturbations in AOGCMs relative to OGCMs with consistent ocean models. This enhanced AMOC weakening is driven by an atmosphere-ocean feedback which amplifies the surface heat flux perturbation. In the North Pacific, there is little agreement amongst the ensemble over which processes lead to ocean warming, with varying contributions from residual mean advection and diapycnal diffusion. For the Pacific basin, the atmosphere-ocean feedback reduces sea surface temperature (SST) warming by 0.5°C. In the Southern Ocean, the atmosphere-ocean feedback is not generally important for buoyancy and momentum flux perturbations.
Aug 2020Published in Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems volume 12 issue 8. 10.1029/2019MS002027