Definition and Classification of Soil Moisture Flash Droughts Over the
United States
Abstract
Flash droughts have recently gained significant attention due to their
severe economic and ecological impacts. Despite extensive and growing
research on flash drought processes, predictability, and trends, there
is still no standard quantitative definition that encompasses all flash
drought characteristics and pathways. This has motivated efforts to
define, inventory, monitor, and forecast flash drought events. In our
recent studies of flash droughts over the United States, we have
introduced the Soil Moisture Volatility Index definition (SMVI) to
inventory the onset dates and severity of flash across the Contiguous
United States (CONUS) for the period 1979-2018. Post to an extended
evaluation and comparison to other flash drought definitions and
independent vegetation and crop datasets for seminal flash drought
events, the SMVI has proved effectiveness in capturing flash drought
onset in both humid and semi-arid regions. Using our SMVI inventory of
flash droughts, we examine and classify flash droughts events based on
multiple land surface and atmospheric conditions that may represent
predictable drivers using a K-means-based clustering methodology. We
found that there are three distinct classes of flash drought that can be
diagnosed in our inventory. The first defined class of events are the
“dry and demanding” droughts, showing high anomalies of evaporative
demand and low soil moisture levels; The second are “evaporative”
events, which develop under conditions of high demand and when elevated
evapotranspiration accelerates soil drying, and a third class that we
refer to as “stealth” events, which may be challenging to predict
based on precursor atmospheric conditions due to the lack of a clear
atmospheric signal with the observed modest anomalies. The contrasting
meteorological and surface process signatures of the three classes do,
however, indicate that events identified as “flash drought” using a
reasonable definition, including events that have been widely reported
as seminal flash droughts, represent a diversity of onset and
intensification processes. Our results suggest that recognizing this
diversity is critical to advance our understanding and ability to
predict these events.