Numerical analysis of the time series magnetic fields in solar active
regions for solar flare forecasting
Abstract
The present space-based solar observing facilities, such as the
Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) instrument aboard the Solar
Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, can obtain time series
photospheric vector magnetograms of solar active regions with high
spatial and temporal resolution. The time evolution of the photospheric
vector magnetic fields can be traced continuously for nearly all active
regions appearing on the solar disk except for the marginal area near
the solar limb. This facilitating condition is a huge benefit to the
solar flare forecasting. By numerical modeling of the coronal magnetic
fields based on the sophisticated nonlinear force-free field model from
the observed photospheric vector magnetograms, the time series data of
the coronal magnetic fields corresponding to the time series
photospheric vector magnetograms can also be obtained. Then, the
numerical analysis can be performed on the coronal magnetic field data,
and the time evolution of the internal coronal magnetic structures as
well as the evolution of the nonpotentiality in solar active regions can
be revealed. The deduced quantitative measures of the coronal magnetic
fields from the numerical analysis, such as the electric current
density, the force-free factor, and the magnetic energy density, can be
utilized in the solar flare forecasting and for establishing the solar
flare prediction model. Samples of electric current analysis are
presented. Through the numerical analysis of the time series magnetic
fields in solar active regions, it is expected to predict flare
locations, flare classes, and timing of flares.