Nuclear and Coal Power Generation Phaseouts Redistribute U.S. Air
Quality and Climate Related Mortality Risk
Abstract
Nuclear and coal power use in the United States are projected to decline
over the coming decades. Here, we explore how simultaneous phase-outs of
these energy sources could affect air pollution and distributional
health risk with existing grid infrastructure. We develop an energy grid
dispatch model to estimate the emissions of CO2, NOx and SO2 from each
U.S. electricity generating unit. We couple the emissions from this
model with a chemical transport model to calculate impacts on
ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5). Our yearlong
scenario removing nuclear power results in compensation by coal, gas and
oil, leading to increased emissions that impact climate and air quality
nationwide. We estimate that changes in PM2.5 and ozone lead to an
additional 9,200 yearly mortalities, and that changes in CO2 emissions
over that period lead to an order of magnitude higher mortalities
throughout the 21st century. Together, air quality and climate impacts
incur between \$80.7-\$126.1 billion of
annual costs. In a scenario where nuclear and coal power are shut down
simultaneously, air quality impacts due to PM2.5 are larger and those
due to ozone are smaller, because of more reliance on high emitting gas
and oil, and climate impacts are substantially smaller than that of
nuclear power shutdowns. With current reliance on non-coal fossil fuels,
closures of nuclear and coal plants shift the distribution of health
risks, exemplifying the importance of multi-system analysis and
unit-level regulations when making energy decisions.