Transport and Confinement of Plumes from Tropopause-Overshooting
Convection over the Contiguous United States During the Warm Season
Abstract
Tropopause-penetrating overshooting convection (OC) can transport
tropospheric air into and affect the composition of the lower
stratosphere. During the warm season, OC occurs frequently over the
contiguous United States, and the transport of plumes from these events
is modulated by the flow over North America, which throughout June to
August is characterized by a large-scale anticyclone in the upper
troposphere and lower stratosphere. This study uses data from the Next
Generation Weather Radar (NEXRAD) and the ERA5 reanalysis to locate OC
during May–August of 2008 to 2020. Evidence of convective transport is
found well above the 380 K isentrope, which is the top of the
“lowermost stratosphere” and also the top of the stratospheric
middleworld. By initializing massless particles within the volume of OC
above the tropopause, we perform trajectory calculations to simulate the
transport of OC plumes. With three-dimensional diabatic trajectory
modeling in isentropic coordinates using winds from ERA5, we quantify
the confinement within the anticyclone and the number of trajectories
transported into the tropical and extratropical stratosphere. By
evaluating the trajectory residence time in the North American region,
we find that July exhibits the strongest confinement, with about a
quarter of trajectories staying in the region for more than 11 days. It
is shown that, together with sufficient injection height, convective
injection that occurs south of the jet and/or into anticyclonic regimes
increases the chances of air remaining in the stratosphere. After 30
days, 45% of all air masses injected above the tropopause remain in the
global stratosphere.