Estimation of future changes in photovoltaic potential in Australia due
to climate change
Abstract
Solar photovoltaic (PV) energy is one of the most preferred and fastest
growing emission-free energy sources in Australia. However, the
dependency of PV generation on climatological factors can impact future
power generation. Considering the future large-scale deployment of PV
systems, accurate climate information is essential for PV site
selection, stable grid regulation, planning and energy output
projections. In this study, the effect of projected changes in shortwave
downwelling radiation, temperature and wind speed on the performance of
PV systems over Australia is examined using regional climate
projections. Results indicate a small, but significant decline in future
PV potential over Australia due to reduced insolation and increased
temperature. Under a high emission scenario, the cell temperature is
predicted to increase 2.5°C by 2070 leading to increased periods of
significantly reduced cell efficiency (6-13 days/year) mostly in Western
and central Australia.