Abstract
The response of the Pacific Walker circulation (WC) to warming in both
observations and simulations is uncertain. We diagnose contributions to
the WC response in comprehensive and idealized general circulation model
(GCM) simulations. We find that the spread in WC response is substantial
across both the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the
Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) models, implicating
differences in atmospheric models in the spread in projected WC
strength. Using a moist static energy (MSE) budget, we evaluate the
contributions to changes in the WC strength related to changes in gross
moist stability (GMS), horizontal MSE advection, radiation, and surface
fluxes. We find that the multimodel mean WC weakening is mostly related
to changes in GMS and radiation. Furthermore, different GMS responses
can explain a substantial portion of the spread in WC responses. The GMS
response is potentially sensitive to parameterized convective
entrainment which can affect lapse rates and the depth of convection. We
thus investigate the role of entrainment in setting the GMS response by
varying the entrainment rate in an idealized GCM. The idealized GCM is
run with a simplified Betts-Miller convection scheme, modified to
represent entrainment. The WC weakening with warming in the idealized
GCM is dampened when higher entrainment rates are used. However, the
spread in GMS responses due to differing entrainment rates is much
smaller than the spread in GMS responses across CMIP6 models. Therefore,
further work is needed to understand the large spread in GMS responses
across CMIP6 and AMIP models.