Training and Deployment of Predictive Models for Space Weather
Forecasting: An Application on Full-disk and Active Region-based Flare
Prediction
Abstract
Taking machine learning models from conceptualization to production is a
complex and often time-consuming practice. Solar flare prediction is a
central problem in space weather forecasting and has piqued the interest
of many researchers in recent years. The prediction efforts have been
catalyzed by the recent advancements in machine learning and deep
learning methods and the experimental results show notable performance
improvements. On the other hand, operationalizing these models and
building well-documented, reliable cyberinfrastructure from them remains
to be a challenging issue. We will present an example training and
deployment scenario for a solar flare prediction system prototype with
two different modes of prediction: full-disk and active region-based. We
will demonstrate the challenges we faced during the development
lifecycle including the data preprocessing and integration, model
training and optimization, validation, and reporting. We will also show
the results from our hybrid-mode flare prediction method and factors
impacting the real-life performance of our cyberinfrastructure services.