Abstract
A method is presented to address model state uncertainty in hydrologic
model simulation. This is achieved by introducing tuneable parameters
that allow adjustments to the model states. Excessive dimensionality is
avoided by introducing only a limited number of parameters that control
the index (timing) and size of the state adjustments. The method is
designed to compensate for issues with hydrologic model structures,
particularly those relevant to the soil moisture state in a
rainfall-runoff model. In the context of water resource planning and
management, errors in the model states have often been overlooked as an
important source of uncertainty and have the potential to significantly
degrade model simulations. A synthetic study shows that a classical
parameter estimation approach will produce biased distributions when
state errors exist, and that the proposed state and parameter
uncertainty estimation (SPUE) can remove the bias in parameter estimates
for improved model simulations. In a real case study, SPUE and the
classical approach are implemented in 46 sites around Australia. The
results show that hydrologic parameter distributions for a selected
conceptual model can be significantly different when accounting for
state uncertainty. This has large implications for scenario modelling
since it puts into dispute how to determine appropriate parameters for
such studies. SPUE parameters outperform the classical approach in a
range of metrics including the Akaike Information Criterion.
Additionally, SPUE parameters performed better during validation
periods. Future work involves testing SPUE with different hydrologic
model and likelihood formulations, and enhancing rigor by explicitly
accounting for observational data uncertainty.